When Volume Moves the Odds: How Trading Flow Shapes Event-Outcome Probabilities
Imagine you are monitoring a binary market on a prediction platform the night before a contested US primary debate. The share price for Candidate A jumps from $0.42 to $0.58 over an hour, accompanied by a threefold rise in traded volume. Your immediate intuition: the probability just changed and the market “knows” something new. That…



